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Mitt Romney after Tuesday night's primary in Tampa, Fla.
While voters often claim to want a
high-toned political debate, the reality is that they respond to
critical information that goes unanswered. Republicans also want a
standard-bearer who looks like he can survive the inevitable cage match
with President Obama. That willingness to fight for conservative values
was part of Mr. Gingrich's appeal in South Carolina, and in Florida Mr.
Romney showed he'll do more than turn the other cheek.
Mr. Romney's cause was helped because the former House Speaker lacked
the money to fight back in television ads and sometimes lacked a good
answer because the charges were true. Mr. Romney's attacks on the
Speaker's Congressional ethics were unfair. But it's hard for Mr.
Gingrich to defend his $1.6 million contract with Freddie Mac, for
example, at the same time he claims to be an outsider who would shake up
Washington. Freddie Mac is the ultimate Beltway machine, and if Mr.
Gingrich loses the nomination, one reason will be his decision to defend
his Freddie contract by saying he was merely consulting as "an
historian."
Mr. Gingrich also did not help himself with some of his own campaign
arguments. In his fury against Mr. Romney, the speaker fired away in
scattershot populist fashion, denouncing Wall Street, Goldman Sachs and
other capitalist institutions in terms not all that different from Mr.
Obama's.
This didn't help the credibility of
Mr. Gingrich's theme that the race is between a "Reagan conservative and
a Massachusetts moderate." Mr. Gingrich's tax plan is better than Mr.
Romney's, but voters in Florida can be forgiven for not knowing it. The
Speaker preferred to campaign against Bain Capital.
According to the exit polls, Mr. Gingrich lost overwhelmingly among
voters who said the economy was the dominant issue, and he even lost to
Mr. Romney as the candidate who voters said most identified with their
concerns. When Mitt Romney outduels you as the man with the common
touch, you have a larger problem than negative TV ads. Mr. Gingrich
would do better to return to the more positive vision and activist
agenda he laid out in his remarks Tuesday night.
Mr. Gingrich is vowing to fight on, and having already been counted
out twice he has standing to do so. He won't have Mr. Romney's
resources, but then with so many more states in play on Super Tuesday on
March 6, Mr. Romney also won't be able to spend as much everywhere. The
GOP has followed the Democratic Party's lead in allocating delegates on
a proportional basis in most states, so Mr. Romney will need many more
primaries to gather a majority.
As for the front-runner, his task now is to inspire a larger and more
loyal following among Republicans and independents. One troubling sign
is that nearly 40% of voters in Florida's exit poll said they would
prefer that another candidate enter the race. Mr. Romney's largely
negative campaign was able to demolish Mr. Gingrich, but it is also
hurting his own favorability, especially among independents.
In his victory remarks Tuesday, Mr. Romney asserted that his party
will unite behind his vision as a self-made businessman who can create
jobs. He also laid out the distressing facts about Mr. Obama's economic
record. (See editorial below.) Neither will be enough in November.
Every successful Presidential candidate needs two narratives that
work together. One is personal, a biography that builds trust among
voters and explains why he is up to the job. Mr. Romney has done this
well, perhaps too well, because he seems to believe that his biography
is his main selling point.
The other essential narrative is built around ideas that capture the
national mood and offer a path to a better future. On this, Mr. Romney
has far to go. His remarks in Tampa provided the outlines of a case
against Mr. Obama, but they offered little to suggest how Mr. Romney
would improve life for anxious Americans. They will not follow him
merely because he saved the Olympics or ran a private-equity firm.
Successful U.S. candidates for the White House have understood that
their mission is larger than their own ambition. It's about a cause,
about "we" not "I." If Mr. Romney really wants to unite his party and
rally a new American majority, he needs a cause bigger than his business
biography.
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