iF only Obama Had Been This Guy
The good news is that growing economies can afford a great deal of government, if not quite as much as the Europeans and the U.S. have promised themselves.
The bad news is that "policy error" are the saddest words in the language. These words, starting in the 1960s, came to dominate serious post mortems on the Great Depression of the 1930s, which blighted so many lives.
Which brings us to President Obama. Has a president ever arrived freer to choose his own course, to devise his own response to the economic crisis that greeted him in office? Candidate Obama landed with no explicit ideological commitments (at least that he cared to share). He was an icon of something else altogether, and his followers were ready to follow wherever he led.
Alas, a few days before his all-but-certain election, he glibly telegraphed what would prove the seminal mistake of his administration, telling Time magazine's Joe Klein that, right after fixing the financial crisis, "a new energy economy . . . That's going to be my No. 1 priority when I get into office."
The financial crisis would not be fixed, but Mr. Obama decided our sagging economy would just have to endure fights over the big ideas he was so determined to implement anyway, including health care, re-empowering labor, redressing income inequality, etc.
The bad news is that "policy error" are the saddest words in the language. These words, starting in the 1960s, came to dominate serious post mortems on the Great Depression of the 1930s, which blighted so many lives.
Which brings us to President Obama. Has a president ever arrived freer to choose his own course, to devise his own response to the economic crisis that greeted him in office? Candidate Obama landed with no explicit ideological commitments (at least that he cared to share). He was an icon of something else altogether, and his followers were ready to follow wherever he led.
Alas, a few days before his all-but-certain election, he glibly telegraphed what would prove the seminal mistake of his administration, telling Time magazine's Joe Klein that, right after fixing the financial crisis, "a new energy economy . . . That's going to be my No. 1 priority when I get into office."
The financial crisis would not be fixed, but Mr. Obama decided our sagging economy would just have to endure fights over the big ideas he was so determined to implement anyway, including health care, re-empowering labor, redressing income inequality, etc.
Conservatives, Romney, and Electability
By MICHAEL MEDVED
Conservative resistance to Mitt Romney's nomination increasingly emphasizes electability as much as ideology, concentrating on his perceived weaknesses as a candidate along with an inconsistent approach to the issues. In headlining a typical blog post, Erick Erickson of RedState.com laments: "Mitt Romney as the Nominee: Conservatism Dies and Barack Obama Wins."Such projections of doom portray Mr. Romney as the dreary second coming of John McCain—a hapless moderate foisted on the disillusioned rank and file by the GOP's country-club establishment, with no real chance to rally the conservative base or draw clear distinctions with Barack Obama.
This analysis, endlessly recycled on the right, relies on groundless assumptions about recent political history. Three myths in particular demand rebuttal and rejection as a prerequisite to GOP success in 2012 and beyond:
1) Many analysts cited by the New York Times, Washington Times and other prominent media sources continue to blame the Republican defeat in 2008 on the millions of conservative true believers who allegedly stayed home rather than vote for the notorious "RINO" (Republican In Name Only) John McCain. In fact, the exit polls showed that the 34% of all voters who described themselves as "conservative" in 2008 precisely matched the portion of the electorate that saw itself as conservative for George W. Bush's re-election in 2004. Because of the much larger overall turnout in 2008, this meant that far more self-identified conservatives (44,627,000) showed up at the polls for the McCain-Obama battle than in the prior duel between Mr. Bush and John Kerry (41,571,000).
Europe's Crisis: Beyond Finance
By George Friedman
Everyone is wondering about the next disaster to befall Europe.
Italy is one focus; Spain is also a possibility. But these crises are already under way. Instead, the next crisis will be political, not in the sense of what conventional politician is going to become prime minister, but in the deeper sense of whether Europe’s political elite can retain power, or whether new political forces are going to emerge that will completely reshape the European political landscape. If this happens, it will be by far the most important consequence of the European financial crisis.
Everyone is wondering about the next disaster to befall Europe.
Italy is one focus; Spain is also a possibility. But these crises are already under way. Instead, the next crisis will be political, not in the sense of what conventional politician is going to become prime minister, but in the deeper sense of whether Europe’s political elite can retain power, or whether new political forces are going to emerge that will completely reshape the European political landscape. If this happens, it will be by far the most important consequence of the European financial crisis.Syria, Iran and the Balance of Power in the Middle East Read more: Syria, Iran and the Balance of Power in the Middle East | STRATFOR
By George Friedman
U.S. troops are in the process of completing their withdrawal from Iraq by the end-of-2011 deadline. We are now moving toward a reckoning with the consequences. The reckoning concerns the potential for a massive shift in the balance of power in the region, with Iran moving from a fairly marginal power to potentially a dominant power. As the process unfolds, the United States and Israel are making countermoves. We have discussed all of this extensively. Questions remain whether these countermoves will stabilize the region and whether or how far Iran will go in its response.
Iran has been preparing for the U.S. withdrawal. While it is unreasonable simply to say that Iran will dominate Iraq, it is fair to say Tehran will have tremendous influence in Baghdad to the point of being able to block Iraqi initiatives Iran opposes. This influence will increase as the U.S. withdrawal concludes and it becomes clear there will be no sudden reversal in the withdrawal policy. Iraqi politicians’ calculus must account for the nearness of Iranian power and the increasing distance and irrelevance of American power.
Resisting Iran under these conditions likely would prove ineffective and dangerous. Some, like the Kurds, believe they have guarantees from the Americans and that substantial investment in Kurdish oil by American companies means those commitments will be honored. A look at the map, however, shows how difficult it would be for the United States to do so. The Baghdad regime has arrested Sunni leaders while the Shia, not all of whom are pro-Iranian by any means, know the price of overenthusiastic resistance.
U.S. troops are in the process of completing their withdrawal from Iraq by the end-of-2011 deadline. We are now moving toward a reckoning with the consequences. The reckoning concerns the potential for a massive shift in the balance of power in the region, with Iran moving from a fairly marginal power to potentially a dominant power. As the process unfolds, the United States and Israel are making countermoves. We have discussed all of this extensively. Questions remain whether these countermoves will stabilize the region and whether or how far Iran will go in its response.
Iran has been preparing for the U.S. withdrawal. While it is unreasonable simply to say that Iran will dominate Iraq, it is fair to say Tehran will have tremendous influence in Baghdad to the point of being able to block Iraqi initiatives Iran opposes. This influence will increase as the U.S. withdrawal concludes and it becomes clear there will be no sudden reversal in the withdrawal policy. Iraqi politicians’ calculus must account for the nearness of Iranian power and the increasing distance and irrelevance of American power.Resisting Iran under these conditions likely would prove ineffective and dangerous. Some, like the Kurds, believe they have guarantees from the Americans and that substantial investment in Kurdish oil by American companies means those commitments will be honored. A look at the map, however, shows how difficult it would be for the United States to do so. The Baghdad regime has arrested Sunni leaders while the Shia, not all of whom are pro-Iranian by any means, know the price of overenthusiastic resistance.
Personal income increased 0.4% in October while personal consumption increased 0.1%
Data Watch
________________________________________
Personal income increased 0.4% in October while personal consumption increased 0.1%
Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist
Robert Stein, CFA - Senior Economist
Personal income increased 0.4% in October while personal consumption increased 0.1%. The consensus expected each to gain 0.3%. (Including revisions for prior months, both income and consumption were unchanged in October.) In the past year, personal income is up 3.9% while spending is up 4.7%.
Disposable personal income (income after taxes) was up 0.3% in October, but down 0.1% including revisions to prior months. Disposable income is up 2.5% from a year ago. Private sector wages and salaries, up 0.5%, accounted for most of the income gains in October.
________________________________________
Personal income increased 0.4% in October while personal consumption increased 0.1%
Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist
Robert Stein, CFA - Senior Economist
Personal income increased 0.4% in October while personal consumption increased 0.1%. The consensus expected each to gain 0.3%. (Including revisions for prior months, both income and consumption were unchanged in October.) In the past year, personal income is up 3.9% while spending is up 4.7%.
Disposable personal income (income after taxes) was up 0.3% in October, but down 0.1% including revisions to prior months. Disposable income is up 2.5% from a year ago. Private sector wages and salaries, up 0.5%, accounted for most of the income gains in October.
New orders for durable goods declined 0.7% in October
Data Watch
________________________________________
New orders for durable goods declined 0.7% in October
Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist
Robert Stein, CFA - Senior Economist
New orders for durable goods declined 0.7% in October versus a consensus expected -1.2%. Orders excluding transportation gained 0.7%, easily beating the consensus expectation of no change. Overall new orders are up 7.5% from a year ago, while orders excluding transportation are up 11.7%.
The drop in overall orders was primarily due to the civilian aircraft, which are extremely volatile from month to month. Orders for motor vehicles/parts were up 6.2%. Orders for primary metals and machinery were also up.
________________________________________
New orders for durable goods declined 0.7% in October
Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist
Robert Stein, CFA - Senior Economist
New orders for durable goods declined 0.7% in October versus a consensus expected -1.2%. Orders excluding transportation gained 0.7%, easily beating the consensus expectation of no change. Overall new orders are up 7.5% from a year ago, while orders excluding transportation are up 11.7%.
The drop in overall orders was primarily due to the civilian aircraft, which are extremely volatile from month to month. Orders for motor vehicles/parts were up 6.2%. Orders for primary metals and machinery were also up.
No comments:
Post a Comment